I am also hoping for some alternative explanation and for birth rates to return to normal. What you are saying is interesting.
Keep in mind that a X change in marriages a year prior, would only cause perhaps x/5 change in overall birth rate, not being exact.
The interesting thing about Hungary is that it provides county-by-county data for vaccinations on Jul 13 2021, and birth rate drops in Q1 2022. I ran a regression and found that P = 0.037 and the negative slope is statistically significant. It is in my Hungary article.
Nice analysis! Good point about some people having "extra" children during the lockdowns. However, quite a few relationships did not survive the ordeal of being locked in one house for so long. New relationship must be formed before people decide to have children. In conclusion, the vaccin theory is too simplistic in my view. I know Igor won't like it 😀
Whatever the proximate cause, be it wax-induced infertility, reduced marriage rate, or my favourite "not tonight darling" hypothesis, there is a more distal cause. Government policies and scaremongering.
The detailed mechanism is less important than getting the message out - these bastards did this to you, to all of you, and you went along.
The choice is between a close shave with tyranny, that may have been helpful in making people realise how easy it is to slip in to, and actual tyranny. I am not optimistic that we will now choose the right path.
The Wedding Crasher
I am also hoping for some alternative explanation and for birth rates to return to normal. What you are saying is interesting.
Keep in mind that a X change in marriages a year prior, would only cause perhaps x/5 change in overall birth rate, not being exact.
The interesting thing about Hungary is that it provides county-by-county data for vaccinations on Jul 13 2021, and birth rate drops in Q1 2022. I ran a regression and found that P = 0.037 and the negative slope is statistically significant. It is in my Hungary article.
Nice analysis! Good point about some people having "extra" children during the lockdowns. However, quite a few relationships did not survive the ordeal of being locked in one house for so long. New relationship must be formed before people decide to have children. In conclusion, the vaccin theory is too simplistic in my view. I know Igor won't like it 😀
Whatever the proximate cause, be it wax-induced infertility, reduced marriage rate, or my favourite "not tonight darling" hypothesis, there is a more distal cause. Government policies and scaremongering.
The detailed mechanism is less important than getting the message out - these bastards did this to you, to all of you, and you went along.
The choice is between a close shave with tyranny, that may have been helpful in making people realise how easy it is to slip in to, and actual tyranny. I am not optimistic that we will now choose the right path.
Births seem to be down in Hungary as well:
https://www.ksh.hu/stadat_files/nep/en/nep0067.html