The Wedding Crasher
Update on my theory explaining sudden fall in births..
Quick update on my first post which explored data suggesting the crash in wedding figures may be responsible for the sudden drop in births.
Eurostat provides marriage data for countries across all Europe. They use a crude marriage rate : the ratio of the number of marriages during the year to the average population in that year and the value is expressed per 1000 inhabitants.
A quick glance reveals, not surprisingly, the phenomenon is widespread. Lockdowns, travel restrictions, uncertainty and panic led to a sizeable drop across the board in marriage figures throughout Europe. In some countries there is a precipitous drop while in others less so, but with the outlier exception of Hungary (marriages were up in 2019 and 2020?), every country has seen substantial deviations from the recent normal range - green shows marriages in 2020.
Recognising that different nations and cultures will have varying rates of childbirth within/without marriage this could still go a long way to explaining the anomalous Q1 births figures in many countries. I am also beginning to suspect that the birth figures in 2021 may have been padded by an increase in lockdown babies - i.e. 2nd, 3rd births, etc. within existing relationships, which in effect may have hidden an earlier drop in firstborns than the drop in total births in Q1 2022 suggests.
Now that I come to think of it, the pandemic will also likely have caused a drop in couples moving out of home, finding new apartments together, buying/building new homes together which, etc. which are all a large part of settling down and preparing the nest for their planned families.
So hopefully I am the bringer of some good news that Children of Men (one of my all-time favourite films) is not unfolding about us!
(Final note: I personally still highly suspect the vaccines may have been responsible for some menstrual irregularities, miscarriages and stillborns BUT it is NOT on the scale suggested by the fall in births we are seeing!)
As always, all feedback very welcome!
UPDATE: I’ve tried to address the main criticisms of my theory in a new post
I am also hoping for some alternative explanation and for birth rates to return to normal. What you are saying is interesting.
Keep in mind that a X change in marriages a year prior, would only cause perhaps x/5 change in overall birth rate, not being exact.
The interesting thing about Hungary is that it provides county-by-county data for vaccinations on Jul 13 2021, and birth rate drops in Q1 2022. I ran a regression and found that P = 0.037 and the negative slope is statistically significant. It is in my Hungary article.
Nice analysis! Good point about some people having "extra" children during the lockdowns. However, quite a few relationships did not survive the ordeal of being locked in one house for so long. New relationship must be formed before people decide to have children. In conclusion, the vaccin theory is too simplistic in my view. I know Igor won't like it 😀