This was excellent. You have very clearly shown the base rate fallacy as well as Simpson's paradox. I would suggest, when looking at observational data, the 3rd item to be added to the Mt. Rushmore of biases to examine is the healthy user bias. I believe you comment on my stack so you are not surprised to know that I think this is a critical component to consider in any look at observational data.

This is why we need RCTs. Until yesterday, I was unaware of any RCTs showing a mortality benefit of the vaccines (I have a full-time, unrelated job... keeping up with all of the literature is not possible for me). Someone on Twitter pointed me to a Cochrane paper which, in turn, seemed to rely on a single RC for VE against COVID deaths for Pfizer and Moderna. Hooray! However, when I looked at the papers involved from that RCT, while it claimed VE against severe disease & death was 97%, it also claimed VE against symptomatic infections was >90%. How can I believe the former when the latter is obviously nonsense?

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Hey Kirsch, want to learn something? Or at least amend or retract your article "New Zealand government data shows that the COVID vaccines make you MORE likely to die from COVID (not less)"

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Feb 23Liked by Witzbold

I think you bring your own confirmation bias to the numbers. You ignore the known death rate of unvaccinated in age groups, and Natural immunity gained from previous infections, so if the vax and boosters actually worked then the deaths should be falling not growing in age groups. Especially as the weakest already succumbed to the more "dangerous" variants. Also as the numbers are fudged a little to say people who die within 14 days of a shot arent vaccinated it puts it own skew on the results. Many more professionals are coming to the same conclusion that these jabs do not help, in fact cause infection rate to go higher.

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Thanks for bringing this up!

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Need to look at deliberate spreading date in NZ opening border.

Step 1: from 23:59 on 27 February 2022

During this phase, vaccinated New Zealanders and eligible travellers from Australia were able to enter New Zealand without the need to enter Managed Isolation and Quarantine (MIQ). Vaccinated travellers were still required to self-isolate on arrival.

Step 2: from 23:59 on 4 March 2022

Vaccinated New Zealanders and eligible travellers from anywhere in the world can enter New Zealand without the need to enter MIQ.

That led to the explosion in cases and Deaths.


About 4,000 Covid19 dead so far.

Adjust the denominator by age as we go?


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Vaxxed:Unvaxxed Population = 93:13 = ~13.3 (ie. ~93?% population vaxxed)

should read:

Vaxxed:Unvaxxed Population = 93:7 = ~13.3 (ie. ~93?% population vaxxed)

I also think (please correct me if I am wrong) that the formula using the odds ratio is not an approximation but exact, if the distinction is binary (i.e., one can only be vaccinated or unvaccinated, and these two make up the total population). See also the formulas here:


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The fixed denominator was a pretty obvious problem. No mercy for whatever big-shots fell for it. Name and shame these intellectual toddlers!

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