high-vax, low-effect countries like France need explanation, though. Even if it is multifactoral.
Was there a difference in which shots were used? Could it be a difference between vax batches? Any way to track what went where? Any correlation between genetic subgroups? How much immigration are we talking about in various countries? We do know where the most UKR refugees are showing up-- can we bust those countries out and analyze them separately? Is there any correlation by total population vs. rate of recent immigration?
It is too early to judge on France. My impression: the 2022 decline is there; it is just hidden behind the 2020/2021 decline (which might have had a different reason; e.g. the insane lockdowns in France). Here's my current data collection (d Diagrams are on births, dt diagrams are on deaths). Look at France (and Belgium) in October!
I admit I hadn't revisited the updated 2022 French data :(
3rd quarter is clear decline
2nd quarter seems marginal
1st quarter, well.. (Jan yes - decline, Feb no, Mar no)
was their vax rollout slower? I will recheck..
(Also important to consider there seems to have been slight trend of decline in French births over last years unlike German births which were very steady.)
The vax-sperm-quality study found that after an initial sperm-quality decrease the median but not the average sperm quality recovered. This suggests that a subgroup of below 50percentile sperm-quality donors suffered a persistent quality decline. This would be consistent with a "sub-group-hypothesis": there is no comulative fertility effect of the vaccines, because the fertility decline is due to a persistent effect in a subgroup after initial vaccination.
Yes, that certainly seems like a possibility. The seeming lack of a cumulative effect is still somehow puzzling - why do you think a subgroup was affected by the initial vaccination dose, but none were affected by the 2nd or 3rd?
1st and 2nd doses were identical; Moderna booster is a half dose while Pfizer booster is another full dose (original Moderna doses were larger than Pfizer).
I can accept there being a blurring of effect from 1st and 2nd doses - especially if they were administered in relatively quick succession ~4 weeks. BUT I have trouble reconciling the lack of perceivable effect from the booster campaign. I would expect there to be an additional subgroup affected 3rd time round
I was critical of this view earlier, so now that more data is in I agree it looks like there is something happening beyond the "not tonight darling" effect.
Is there data separated by first versus second and later births? It could be useful because we might reasonably expect different causes to affect first vs later births differently.
Vaccine reduces fertility across the board: Probably equal effect on first and later births, so no change from the pre-vax era to the post-vax era.
Vaccine reduces fertility in some men and women: Probably equal effect on first and later births.
Lockdown caused less pair bonding: Probably higher reduction in first births than second and later (complicated by people who have children but would have been looking for a new partner)
Concerns about economy/war/don't want to bring children into a world run by Klaus Schwab: Who knows if there would be a differential effect..
high-vax, low-effect countries like France need explanation, though. Even if it is multifactoral.
Was there a difference in which shots were used? Could it be a difference between vax batches? Any way to track what went where? Any correlation between genetic subgroups? How much immigration are we talking about in various countries? We do know where the most UKR refugees are showing up-- can we bust those countries out and analyze them separately? Is there any correlation by total population vs. rate of recent immigration?
It is too early to judge on France. My impression: the 2022 decline is there; it is just hidden behind the 2020/2021 decline (which might have had a different reason; e.g. the insane lockdowns in France). Here's my current data collection (d Diagrams are on births, dt diagrams are on deaths). Look at France (and Belgium) in October!
https://www.file-upload.net/download-15063336/Geburten.xlsx.html
Thanks for this!
I admit I hadn't revisited the updated 2022 French data :(
3rd quarter is clear decline
2nd quarter seems marginal
1st quarter, well.. (Jan yes - decline, Feb no, Mar no)
was their vax rollout slower? I will recheck..
(Also important to consider there seems to have been slight trend of decline in French births over last years unlike German births which were very steady.)
Yes, the pre-pandemic trend of decline is very visible for France, as well as for Spain and Italy.
YES! The French rollout to that cohort was slower and came moreso in Q3 2021 almost a quarter after Germany.
I can't believe I missed this as I actually included a chart of the French vaccine rollout to the chid bearing cohorts in a previous post.
https://lostintranslations.substack.com/p/german-births-in-the-news
UPDATE:
=======
Here is the link to the French data
https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/
Note the chart I previously included was only partial (1 st dose). You can select 'totalement' (= 2 doses) in menu.
The vax-sperm-quality study found that after an initial sperm-quality decrease the median but not the average sperm quality recovered. This suggests that a subgroup of below 50percentile sperm-quality donors suffered a persistent quality decline. This would be consistent with a "sub-group-hypothesis": there is no comulative fertility effect of the vaccines, because the fertility decline is due to a persistent effect in a subgroup after initial vaccination.
Yes, that certainly seems like a possibility. The seeming lack of a cumulative effect is still somehow puzzling - why do you think a subgroup was affected by the initial vaccination dose, but none were affected by the 2nd or 3rd?
It might be that a subgroup has an immunesystem disposition that leads to autoimmunity-issues with the first exposition to the "vaccine".
I have not predicted it a priori. It is just an effort to list possible Hypotheses. El gato malo just posted about the female subgroup with possibly persistent menstrual disruptions. https://open.substack.com/pub/boriquagato/p/quick-updates-on-covid-vaccine-fertility?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android
Were subsequent doses different from the initial dose?
1st and 2nd doses were identical; Moderna booster is a half dose while Pfizer booster is another full dose (original Moderna doses were larger than Pfizer).
I can accept there being a blurring of effect from 1st and 2nd doses - especially if they were administered in relatively quick succession ~4 weeks. BUT I have trouble reconciling the lack of perceivable effect from the booster campaign. I would expect there to be an additional subgroup affected 3rd time round
I was critical of this view earlier, so now that more data is in I agree it looks like there is something happening beyond the "not tonight darling" effect.
Is there data separated by first versus second and later births? It could be useful because we might reasonably expect different causes to affect first vs later births differently.
Vaccine reduces fertility across the board: Probably equal effect on first and later births, so no change from the pre-vax era to the post-vax era.
Vaccine reduces fertility in some men and women: Probably equal effect on first and later births.
Lockdown caused less pair bonding: Probably higher reduction in first births than second and later (complicated by people who have children but would have been looking for a new partner)
Concerns about economy/war/don't want to bring children into a world run by Klaus Schwab: Who knows if there would be a differential effect..
I covered data seperated by first versus secon and later births in this post:
https://lostintranslations.substack.com/p/update-significant-drop-in-german
The declines were relatively uniform in the first 4 months of 2022 in Germany.
Note: most births in Germany are first births
Note also: there had been a slight boom in 2nd and sucessive births in 2021 in Germany so it was to be expected that this would decline in 2022.
https://lostintranslations.substack.com/p/sudden-drop-in-german-births-part
I covered less pair bonding in my first post:
https://lostintranslations.substack.com/p/the-wedding-crasher
The timing seems very unlikely.
Concerns about economy I also covered in my first post.
Concerns about war are not applicable to births conceived in Spring 2021 for Germany and western Europe.