It depends... on Actual death totals when late registrations are included (I am hesitant about the totals featured on IrelandExcessDeaths - I suspect totals could be lower) AND how "Expected deaths" are calculated (we have already seen how estimates can vary)
Therefore safest to talk about a range. Ireland will end up with relatively average excess mortality similar to some of the Scandinavians, like Norway (but MORE than Sweden ;)
Certainly more than Lancet, OECD, SAI, etc. have claimed (poor incomplete data basis) and certainly less than Eurostat, IrelandExcessDeaths, PatrickEWalsh claim (poor methodology excluding long-term trends).
If I'm forced to put a number on 2020-2023, then around 5~7% or 7~9k. So you see, my figures don't please anyone, neither officialdom/public nor the regime critical community.
I have been keeping meticulous records of Australia's mortality rate for years. Recently I decided this was no longer possible because the federal government body (Australian Bureau of Statistics) has not just rendered all the data meaningless by altering the baselines, they are now just using 'words' (rather than numbers) in their monthy situation reports.
Example: it's 'high' or 'low.'
Essentially, this is a humilation ritual for the people who are paying attention.
To further the humilation, Australia is having an excess deaths enquiry in federal parliament that is chaired and run by the people who voted against the enquiry. One month (January 2022) we had excess mortality +20% above baseline and double digit excess mortality for much of 2022-2023. Of course, much of Australia was in a 'covid zero' situation 2021-2022 for much of the excess mortality due to closed borders.
Best of luck with your work - thanks for the reporting.
The irony is that with a new bill currently progressing through houses of parliament in - Civil Registration (Electronic Registration) Bill 2024 - Ireland will foreseeably have much more reliable near-time deaths data. Of course, the critical period when such data might have undermined the preferred government public health policy during the pandemic has now safely passed.
It is one of the things I am most annoyed about with regard to the Irish response, that the government/Department of Health/Health Protection Surveillance Centre/etc apparently made no efforts to additionally provisionally collate data from coroners' offices to offer an accurate overview of actual mortality levels.
Nice graphic from ONS, though I am not sure if those are age-adjusted rates or crude rates. Anyway, yes, more data is always good and longer timeframes can help to put things in context.
My latest post https://lostintranslations.substack.com/p/part-5-what-goes-up-must-come-down used very complete data starting from 2007 comparable to death notices data used by others analysing excess deaths in Ireland. I consider that enough to establish the pertinent trends in 21st century Irish mortality figures, though perhaps I'll also look at producing longer term graphs for another perspective.
Re arguing over the shoe-print, point taken. Most of us agree the uniformed thief got into the house largely through scarifying with deception and exaggerated data, so I am disinclined to adopt the same tactics - don't want to become what I hate.
It depends... on Actual death totals when late registrations are included (I am hesitant about the totals featured on IrelandExcessDeaths - I suspect totals could be lower) AND how "Expected deaths" are calculated (we have already seen how estimates can vary)
Therefore safest to talk about a range. Ireland will end up with relatively average excess mortality similar to some of the Scandinavians, like Norway (but MORE than Sweden ;)
Certainly more than Lancet, OECD, SAI, etc. have claimed (poor incomplete data basis) and certainly less than Eurostat, IrelandExcessDeaths, PatrickEWalsh claim (poor methodology excluding long-term trends).
If I'm forced to put a number on 2020-2023, then around 5~7% or 7~9k. So you see, my figures don't please anyone, neither officialdom/public nor the regime critical community.
I have been keeping meticulous records of Australia's mortality rate for years. Recently I decided this was no longer possible because the federal government body (Australian Bureau of Statistics) has not just rendered all the data meaningless by altering the baselines, they are now just using 'words' (rather than numbers) in their monthy situation reports.
Example: it's 'high' or 'low.'
Essentially, this is a humilation ritual for the people who are paying attention.
To further the humilation, Australia is having an excess deaths enquiry in federal parliament that is chaired and run by the people who voted against the enquiry. One month (January 2022) we had excess mortality +20% above baseline and double digit excess mortality for much of 2022-2023. Of course, much of Australia was in a 'covid zero' situation 2021-2022 for much of the excess mortality due to closed borders.
Best of luck with your work - thanks for the reporting.
The irony is that with a new bill currently progressing through houses of parliament in - Civil Registration (Electronic Registration) Bill 2024 - Ireland will foreseeably have much more reliable near-time deaths data. Of course, the critical period when such data might have undermined the preferred government public health policy during the pandemic has now safely passed.
It is one of the things I am most annoyed about with regard to the Irish response, that the government/Department of Health/Health Protection Surveillance Centre/etc apparently made no efforts to additionally provisionally collate data from coroners' offices to offer an accurate overview of actual mortality levels.
Governments committing democide are not going to provide the evidence. This is a key and enduring component of calculated mass murder.
Really appreciate your expert take. May I ask, what are your excess death calculations in Ireland since the roll-out of the trial injections?
Oops, just realised I replied to your comment in a separate comment. See pinned comment above.
Confirming your point.
One question though: wouldn't we want to take as a window a few decades of historical data to generate our trendline? E.g. something like.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/mortalityintheunitedkingdom/19832013/56eb549b.png
Feels a bit like arguing over the shoe-print left by a thief while he's still in the house robbin us though, eh?
I guess the problem is the thief is wearing a uniform.
Hi Perry, which point are you referring to?
Nice graphic from ONS, though I am not sure if those are age-adjusted rates or crude rates. Anyway, yes, more data is always good and longer timeframes can help to put things in context.
My latest post https://lostintranslations.substack.com/p/part-5-what-goes-up-must-come-down used very complete data starting from 2007 comparable to death notices data used by others analysing excess deaths in Ireland. I consider that enough to establish the pertinent trends in 21st century Irish mortality figures, though perhaps I'll also look at producing longer term graphs for another perspective.
Re arguing over the shoe-print, point taken. Most of us agree the uniformed thief got into the house largely through scarifying with deception and exaggerated data, so I am disinclined to adopt the same tactics - don't want to become what I hate.