Here the original comments from the first version of this post:
==
From: Patrick E Walsh
Hi,
you have used INCORRECT figures for 2022 in your article. You have used REGISTERED deaths IN 2022 while all other years are ACTUAL deaths.
The actual figures for 2022 will not be released until October 2024 which I highlighted in an article of mine ‘Excess Deaths in Ireland Age is no barrier’, that you read and commented on.
I also replied to your query as to where I got the figures saying ‘its important to remember that there is a difference between the Annual Report and the Yearly Summary’.
When the 2022 ACTUAL figures are released in Oct 2024 I have no doubt they will be much higher eg there were 33055 deaths regd in 2021 but the Actual deaths per CSO was 34844 as you used. Thats nearly 1800 extra !
I have broken my own rule as regards not critiqueing other peoples work unless asked because considering our previous correspondence I do not doubt your intentions in these matters.
I will not comment or engage again on this but you might consider the appropriateness of using Census 2022 pop analysis where hundreds of thousands of permanent irish people under 40 have emigrated over the last few years to be replaced by in many cases temporary immigrants whose deaths would never be registered in Ireland.
There is also an increased backlog of inquests for deaths in under 40s that I wrote about which means their deaths cant be registered eg 2 high profile inquests for young men who died duddenly in 2021 (T McGinty & R Butler) will not be in the figures. These are statistically important points as there are so few deaths in these age groups. There is also cause of deaths to be considered.
Firstly, thanks for your reply, which is very welcome! – honest but robust dialogue is encouraged and required here. You are right that the data for 2022 is provisional and I will update the articles to reflect this. Note, deaths data used in this article is taken neither from the Annual Report nor the Yearly Summary. The deaths totals used here are taken from CSO dataset VSA07 entitled “Deaths Occurring”. The dataset includes a note that “Data is final up to 2020. Data for subsequent year/s is provisional.”
You write: “When the 2022 ACTUAL figures are released in Oct 2024 I have no doubt they will be much higher eg there were 33055 deaths regd in 2021 but the Actual deaths per CSO was 34844 as you used. Thats nearly 1800 extra !”
Do you know what the typical difference between the provisional and actual figures has been in years prior to 2021?
For example, if we increase the death total for 2022 in our table of hypothetical death differences for 2022 by two thousand, it will lead to a similar situation for 2021 where more recent death rates result in overall excess deaths. Of course, the devil will be in the detail as to which age cohorts those extra deaths are allocated.
Your qualms about the 2022 census are not clear - do you think the rate of deaths inside Ireland not registered in Ireland is significantly different to previous years? Do you think the census figures are overcounting or undercounting the population?
Also, your feedback or comments would be very welcome on one of the MAIN points of this article (and which I have mentioned a couple of times in comments on your articles) that death RATES by age are key to ascertaining accurate excess deaths and a reliance on deaths TOTALS only is inadequate. The contrast between the two colour-ranked tables at the top of Part 2 should make this very clear. Indeed, plotted charts of those mortality rates per age group support the analysis that any excess deaths in Ireland is occurring in the young adults age groups.
Happy to continue this exchange by e-mail again or chat if you’d prefer.
Here the original comments from the first version of this post:
==
From: Patrick E Walsh
Hi,
you have used INCORRECT figures for 2022 in your article. You have used REGISTERED deaths IN 2022 while all other years are ACTUAL deaths.
The actual figures for 2022 will not be released until October 2024 which I highlighted in an article of mine ‘Excess Deaths in Ireland Age is no barrier’, that you read and commented on.
I also replied to your query as to where I got the figures saying ‘its important to remember that there is a difference between the Annual Report and the Yearly Summary’.
When the 2022 ACTUAL figures are released in Oct 2024 I have no doubt they will be much higher eg there were 33055 deaths regd in 2021 but the Actual deaths per CSO was 34844 as you used. Thats nearly 1800 extra !
I have broken my own rule as regards not critiqueing other peoples work unless asked because considering our previous correspondence I do not doubt your intentions in these matters.
I will not comment or engage again on this but you might consider the appropriateness of using Census 2022 pop analysis where hundreds of thousands of permanent irish people under 40 have emigrated over the last few years to be replaced by in many cases temporary immigrants whose deaths would never be registered in Ireland.
There is also an increased backlog of inquests for deaths in under 40s that I wrote about which means their deaths cant be registered eg 2 high profile inquests for young men who died duddenly in 2021 (T McGinty & R Butler) will not be in the figures. These are statistically important points as there are so few deaths in these age groups. There is also cause of deaths to be considered.
Here our original reply:
==
Hi Patrick,
Firstly, thanks for your reply, which is very welcome! – honest but robust dialogue is encouraged and required here. You are right that the data for 2022 is provisional and I will update the articles to reflect this. Note, deaths data used in this article is taken neither from the Annual Report nor the Yearly Summary. The deaths totals used here are taken from CSO dataset VSA07 entitled “Deaths Occurring”. The dataset includes a note that “Data is final up to 2020. Data for subsequent year/s is provisional.”
You write: “When the 2022 ACTUAL figures are released in Oct 2024 I have no doubt they will be much higher eg there were 33055 deaths regd in 2021 but the Actual deaths per CSO was 34844 as you used. Thats nearly 1800 extra !”
Do you know what the typical difference between the provisional and actual figures has been in years prior to 2021?
For example, if we increase the death total for 2022 in our table of hypothetical death differences for 2022 by two thousand, it will lead to a similar situation for 2021 where more recent death rates result in overall excess deaths. Of course, the devil will be in the detail as to which age cohorts those extra deaths are allocated.
Your qualms about the 2022 census are not clear - do you think the rate of deaths inside Ireland not registered in Ireland is significantly different to previous years? Do you think the census figures are overcounting or undercounting the population?
Also, your feedback or comments would be very welcome on one of the MAIN points of this article (and which I have mentioned a couple of times in comments on your articles) that death RATES by age are key to ascertaining accurate excess deaths and a reliance on deaths TOTALS only is inadequate. The contrast between the two colour-ranked tables at the top of Part 2 should make this very clear. Indeed, plotted charts of those mortality rates per age group support the analysis that any excess deaths in Ireland is occurring in the young adults age groups.
Happy to continue this exchange by e-mail again or chat if you’d prefer.