Thank you for this! It has been interesting to read (some of your earlier posts too) and I appreciate your time and effort.
One of my reasons for considering the “vaccine effect” on births is that the drop starts in January 2022, nine months after the vaccine roll-out started. Even if many mothers didn’t get it before becoming pregnant, (March 2021 - say June/July 2021) they might have gotten it while pregnant and had miscarriages. Others might have gotten it before becoming pregnant and are now unable to become pregnant.
Also, I think it would be useful to test your hypothesis with countries that had lockdowns, but not a high rate of vaccinations (e.g. South Africa). Those populations may also have had wedding disruptions, but should have less of a drop in birth rate if the vaccines have an effect on births.
I like the way that you think and reason and I’m glad that you are honest when new data comes out.
I can see where you are coming from in considering the "vaccine effect" with an apparent 9 month correlation. I think I will write about some of the the points you make in my next post. My personal opinion is that the rollout of the vaccine campaign still somehow doesn't fit the "births effect" we are witnessing.
Regards testing the hypothesis on some other countries - yes, good idea (I have started to take another look at some of the data in Sweden and Hungary). Of course it's easiest for me to check English/German language sources and not everyone releases monthly data for 2022, so it is limited.
Also, in my first post I mentioned some reasons I am focusing on just Germany. Another reason is I think it helpful to those substackers focusing on the "big picture" noticing patterns in different countries, if some of us try to burrow down into the details of one of those countries which they use as an example for their thesis around a vaccine connection.
I hadn't thought of that. My focus was simply that 2017-2021was so consistent that it makes the abrupt fall in 2022 so obvious and very difficult to reconicile with any demographic trends.
I am very surprised at the understated nature of the Destatis press release. Correct me if I am wrong but such an abrupt, uniform and continued drop, as we are seeing, is quite unprecedented.
Thank you for this! It has been interesting to read (some of your earlier posts too) and I appreciate your time and effort.
One of my reasons for considering the “vaccine effect” on births is that the drop starts in January 2022, nine months after the vaccine roll-out started. Even if many mothers didn’t get it before becoming pregnant, (March 2021 - say June/July 2021) they might have gotten it while pregnant and had miscarriages. Others might have gotten it before becoming pregnant and are now unable to become pregnant.
Also, I think it would be useful to test your hypothesis with countries that had lockdowns, but not a high rate of vaccinations (e.g. South Africa). Those populations may also have had wedding disruptions, but should have less of a drop in birth rate if the vaccines have an effect on births.
I like the way that you think and reason and I’m glad that you are honest when new data comes out.
Thanks for the feedback!
I can see where you are coming from in considering the "vaccine effect" with an apparent 9 month correlation. I think I will write about some of the the points you make in my next post. My personal opinion is that the rollout of the vaccine campaign still somehow doesn't fit the "births effect" we are witnessing.
Regards testing the hypothesis on some other countries - yes, good idea (I have started to take another look at some of the data in Sweden and Hungary). Of course it's easiest for me to check English/German language sources and not everyone releases monthly data for 2022, so it is limited.
Also, in my first post I mentioned some reasons I am focusing on just Germany. Another reason is I think it helpful to those substackers focusing on the "big picture" noticing patterns in different countries, if some of us try to burrow down into the details of one of those countries which they use as an example for their thesis around a vaccine connection.
I suspect that pre-2016 figures are difficult to compare to post-2016 figures due to the inflow of migrants (mostly younger people).
I hadn't thought of that. My focus was simply that 2017-2021was so consistent that it makes the abrupt fall in 2022 so obvious and very difficult to reconicile with any demographic trends.
I am very surprised at the understated nature of the Destatis press release. Correct me if I am wrong but such an abrupt, uniform and continued drop, as we are seeing, is quite unprecedented.