I would have gone higher. I computed (difference in population) * (median death rate 2011-2019) to get expected changes per age group, and then summed these up. On average or via median (excluding 2012; I do not trust the reported change in population), the effect is around 18,500 per year, or 1,500 per month.
Yes, that's not that much of a difference. I had your question in mind (where you mention 250 deaths per month) but of course you have been using 250 per week in the post.
Nicely put together observations. However the missing link is Vitamin D3. It is well known that there is a seasonal variation in serum levels of Vitamin D3 and this correlates with the frequency of winter illnesses and even depression. What is not so well know is the Spanish research into Calcifediol - 25(OH)D3 and its ability to prevent admissions to ICU and death given intravenously. The average serum level of D3 in the population is only 40 nmol/L despite the number of sunny days. This is way below the French lower reference level of 75 nmol/L. At this level the D3 blocks the cytokine storm generated by the spike protein and ensures the naso-pharyngeal surfaces contain two proteins in the mucus, one that destroys infectious bacteria the other viruses.
I think the lack of a healthy immune system is a factor in this seasonality.
The only problem with sunlight is our lifestyle is not conducive to safely reaching the necessary serum levels of D3 to be protective and all the medical advice is wrong. For example Ozone blocks UVB, the wavelength used in photsynthesis of the D3 precursor in the skin. So contrary to the scientific consensus, the so called Ozone hole is beneficial. We need to also understand that UVA is extremely penetrating and goes through to the basal cell layer in the skin. So minimising the exposure to sunlight is very important to avoid DNA skin damage. The only way to do this is sunbathe at midday contrary to medical advice. You can only make Vitamin D3 if your shadow is no longer than your height.
Then if you work all day inside you cannot get enough sunlight and even if you are retired like we are and sunbathe in the summer it impossible to get serum levels of Vitamin D3 much above 100 nmol/L and supplements are necessary.
If everyone was taking 5000 IU (125 microgram) of calciferol per day the pandemic would have had no chance of coming to fruitiion.
The healthiest time of my life was a 3 year period when I was pretty much outdoors everyday, working, biking, hiking, climbing, camping... I've been taking the Vit D3 supplements now since December 2021 :)
Dr Grant reviews the latest papers and refers to his earlier article on the techniques used to suppress Vitamin D3 information in this article archived here.
To be really healthy, and this means prevent cancer, your serum level needs to be better than 120 nmol/L. Not only is D3 essential for immune health it also prevents cancer. It has a number of mechanisms but the best ones are:- helps epithelial tissue cells maintain tight junctions. Causes apoptosis for cells that do breakaway and inhibits vascularisation of cancerous nodules. The others are much more obscure. D3 will not cure cancer but it gets used up by burn victims and presumably other injuries so it is very important to maintain high levels. See the Garland brothers DINOMIT theory of cancer which came from similar observations you are making during their travels across America while studying the incidence of colon cancer.
An important statistic they discovered was that 98% of solid cancers occur in the epithelium. That is why surgery can be so successful.
Here is a link to a paper that analysed the trial of 76 Covid19 patients, 50 given Calcifediol( 25(OH)D3) injections to prevent ICU admission the other 26 had 13 admissions and a death.
Children's Health Defence had a panel discussion on where did the flu go? The video is from 3 November 2022 and IIRC, the suggestion was that for various reasons pneumonia deaths were recorded as influenza deaths. And that changed in 2020.
Excellent! I particularly like the reproduction of the ONS diagram for Germany.
@cm27874 Thanks!
Do you think the 250 deaths per month per year a reasonable approximation of the pre-pandemic trend, or would you have gone higher?
EDIT: I meant to write 250 deaths per WEEK per year
I would have gone higher. I computed (difference in population) * (median death rate 2011-2019) to get expected changes per age group, and then summed these up. On average or via median (excluding 2012; I do not trust the reported change in population), the effect is around 18,500 per year, or 1,500 per month.
https://www.file-upload.net/download-15083160/expected_increase_in_deaths_Germany.xlsx.html
Thanks - that's very useful to see how you went about it.
I just played around with some trendline extrapolations in Excel to get a rough idea.
Your 18,5000 per year is ~335 per week.
Yes, that's not that much of a difference. I had your question in mind (where you mention 250 deaths per month) but of course you have been using 250 per week in the post.
Nicely put together observations. However the missing link is Vitamin D3. It is well known that there is a seasonal variation in serum levels of Vitamin D3 and this correlates with the frequency of winter illnesses and even depression. What is not so well know is the Spanish research into Calcifediol - 25(OH)D3 and its ability to prevent admissions to ICU and death given intravenously. The average serum level of D3 in the population is only 40 nmol/L despite the number of sunny days. This is way below the French lower reference level of 75 nmol/L. At this level the D3 blocks the cytokine storm generated by the spike protein and ensures the naso-pharyngeal surfaces contain two proteins in the mucus, one that destroys infectious bacteria the other viruses.
I think the lack of a healthy immune system is a factor in this seasonality.
Yes, I didn't mention it explicitly - it's the sunlight connection.
The only problem with sunlight is our lifestyle is not conducive to safely reaching the necessary serum levels of D3 to be protective and all the medical advice is wrong. For example Ozone blocks UVB, the wavelength used in photsynthesis of the D3 precursor in the skin. So contrary to the scientific consensus, the so called Ozone hole is beneficial. We need to also understand that UVA is extremely penetrating and goes through to the basal cell layer in the skin. So minimising the exposure to sunlight is very important to avoid DNA skin damage. The only way to do this is sunbathe at midday contrary to medical advice. You can only make Vitamin D3 if your shadow is no longer than your height.
Then if you work all day inside you cannot get enough sunlight and even if you are retired like we are and sunbathe in the summer it impossible to get serum levels of Vitamin D3 much above 100 nmol/L and supplements are necessary.
If everyone was taking 5000 IU (125 microgram) of calciferol per day the pandemic would have had no chance of coming to fruitiion.
Thanks, great info!
The healthiest time of my life was a 3 year period when I was pretty much outdoors everyday, working, biking, hiking, climbing, camping... I've been taking the Vit D3 supplements now since December 2021 :)
I think I first came across the Covid connection via Dr. John Campbell and his YouTube channel but also a good article by Johnathan Cook https://www.jonathan-cook.net/blog/2021-02-22/doctors-vitamin-d-erode-trust/
An interesting paper dropped into my inbox this morning from Orthomolecular Medicine on Vitamin D3.
Top Vitamin D papers for 2022. https://tinyurl.com/3pedtd9s
Dr Grant reviews the latest papers and refers to his earlier article on the techniques used to suppress Vitamin D3 information in this article archived here.
http://www.orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v14n22.shtml
To be really healthy, and this means prevent cancer, your serum level needs to be better than 120 nmol/L. Not only is D3 essential for immune health it also prevents cancer. It has a number of mechanisms but the best ones are:- helps epithelial tissue cells maintain tight junctions. Causes apoptosis for cells that do breakaway and inhibits vascularisation of cancerous nodules. The others are much more obscure. D3 will not cure cancer but it gets used up by burn victims and presumably other injuries so it is very important to maintain high levels. See the Garland brothers DINOMIT theory of cancer which came from similar observations you are making during their travels across America while studying the incidence of colon cancer.
An important statistic they discovered was that 98% of solid cancers occur in the epithelium. That is why surgery can be so successful.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1470481/
Here is a link to a paper that analysed the trial of 76 Covid19 patients, 50 given Calcifediol( 25(OH)D3) injections to prevent ICU admission the other 26 had 13 admissions and a death.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.08.20222638v2.full
I have not heard Bill Gates jumping in to offer money for a full clinical trial but maybe he is so busy he has not got around to it yet.
Children's Health Defence had a panel discussion on where did the flu go? The video is from 3 November 2022 and IIRC, the suggestion was that for various reasons pneumonia deaths were recorded as influenza deaths. And that changed in 2020.
https://live.childrenshealthdefense.org/chd-tv/shows/the-defender-show/disappearing-flu-data-with-dr-robert-malone-j-jay-couey-ph-d-others/